10 Takeaways from Trump’s 100 Days
Donald Trump himself made numerous promises about what he would achieve in his first hundred days; central to his pitch to the American people was that he would do things fast, that American leaders were stupid and that he could quickly overcome obstacles to enact change.
Here are ten quick takeaways on how things have been going for the outsider so far.
1. The Wins
- Gorsuch
Neil Gorsuch was confirmed onto the Supreme Court. The Court now skews slightly conservative, to the cheers of Republicans. It should be noted that this was only possible because Senate Majority Leader McConnell rewrote the rules regarding the filibuster, to enable the appointment to proceed. - Deregulation
Avoiding the legislative process, Trump has signed a number of executive orders to reduce business regulations. This has been greeted with enthusiasm from the stock markets and conservatives alike. - Syria strikes
Whatever the merit of the strikes themselves, Trump’s team will be able to claim the 59 missiles launched at a military post in Syria constitute a demonstration of American strength and Trump’s restraint. - Pulled out of Trans Pacific Partnership
To his credit, President Trump swiftly fulfilled one campaign promise and withdrew from the TPP on taking office. The benefits of this action, however, are arguable; many believe the cold reality is that he’s ceding long term influence to Beijing.
2. The Losses
- Repeal and replace Obamacare/The healthcare fail
This was a huge defeat. Promising the repeal and replace of Obamacare in the first few weeks, and then playing chicken with Republican dissenters in Congress, the President was unable to find the votes for the American Health Care Act — a very unpopular law that would ‘repeal and replace Obamcare’ — despite having a majority in Congress. - The Muslim ban in limbo
Very publicly, Trump has tried twice to enact a ban on immigration from several Muslim majority counties. The first included an American ally, Iraq, who’s government and citizens are vital in the fight against ISIS. Both attempts were blocked by judges who found the orders unconstitutional. The ban remains in limbo. - Tax reform and cuts stalled
The failure to pass healthcare in Congress has had a knock on effect. The AHCA contained significant tax cuts that needed to be enacted before the tax reform many Republicans desire. Congressional rules essentially prevent large tax cuts and tax reform from taking place at the same time, so reforming the tax system relied on passing the tax cuts baked into the healthcare law. This has earned the AHCA the little known moniker, ‘WealthCare’. - No action on the border wall
A last ditch attempt before the 100 day mark to tick off a campaign promise, funding for the wall will not be passed in the upcoming budget resolution. Even Trump himself seems to be realising how unlikely his campaign promise will be, with this uncharacteristically cagey Tweet:
- Campaign controversies live on
Russia, tax returns, and potential conflicts of interest. The Russia investigations into possible collusion with the Trump campaign team and Russian hackers continue apace, and led to the dismissal of Trump’s first National Security Adviser, General Flynn. Trump’s lack of transparency on taxes is spurring protests and even Republican derision. Meanwhile, analysts believe he may already be in violation of the Emoluments Clause for conflicts of interest since Trump has not properly divested himself of his business concerns.
3. His approval ratings are low. Historically low.
Donald Trump loves polls. At least, the ones where he’s doing well. Unfortunately, there are very few of those around at the moment. Instead, the average of Trump’s job approval is historically low compared to recent Presidents.
The 41% rating is 14 points clear of the next lowest, Bill Clinton, who botched his opening weeks by fumbling into a debate about gays in the military. Trump is well below Clinton, and at times has dipped into the mid-to-high 30s.
It’s worth noting that Secretary Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump were historically unpopular candidates; perhaps either candidate would be breaking records on negative job approval? Added to which, partisanship makes approval ratings very tricky things: Obama’s average approval rating across his eight years in office was 47.9%, despite the fact that he left office with a decent 59% approval rating, and that historians have generally judged him to have been a good president. Even so, while most of his core support remain on the Trump Train, but few else are getting on board.
4. Trump has flip flopped on China
The President has entirely stepped away from his declared intention of labelling China as a currency manipulator. The Trump campaign repeatedly used hostile language against the Middle Kingdom, almost threatening trade war. The reality of the economic dependence, as well as President Xi Jinping’s role in resolving the North Korea problem, has resulted in a flip flop as Trump embraces the Chinese leader.
Depending on your political outlook, this can be seen as positive; it may be evidence that Trump is listening to experts, and slowly tacking towards the pragmatic centre. However, Trump’s shift towards globalist, pragmatic positions may have cost him some of his ardent far right supporters.
5. A ‘Trump Doctrine’ is slowly taking shape as Trump tries to shift public attention away from troubles at home
Faced with a stalled legislative agenda in Washington and lagging popularity, Donald Trump has done what many other Presidents have done before him: turned to foreign affairs. The Syria strikes and sabre-rattling with North Korea have revealed some key tenets of a proto-Trump Doctrine:
- Avoid prolonged entanglements, evident from Trump’s reluctance to commit to a Syria policy
- Appear tough and reckless. Dubbed ‘mad man’ theory, this style of foreign policy is predicated on appearing irrational and unpredictable, thus forcing other nations to react conservatively, and inherently fear what the ‘mad man’ might do
- Don’t be Obama. Reporting from the White House, and the President’s own statements, make it clear he wishes to create separation from his predecessor on foreign affairs
- Forget American exceptionalism. Putin, Erdogan, Assad (at least for a time): they’re all fine in Trump’s eyes. Germany’s Angela Merkel, less so. Trump’s worldview is unusually amoral, composed of strongmen, and entirely based on American strategic interest. The strikes on Syria were not supported by a commitment on how and where the U.S. would intervene, and so do not override Trump’s existing predilection for avoiding commitment and embracing strongmen.
It’s premature to call this a doctrine yet, but as Trump diverts attention to foreign affairs, these principles will be increasingly important.
6. Attacking the media and ‘alternative facts’ here to stay
Trump’s troubling relationship with the truth has survived his transition into the White House. Media outlets that do not cover him favourably have been labelled ‘dishonest’, and moved to the back of the press briefing room. Meanwhile smaller, right wing news outlets are enjoying a field day while coverage remains positive.
From the outrageous bungle over Trump’s claim Obama “wiretapped” him, to Press Secretary Sean Spicer’s bickering over photographic evidence of Trump’s less than impressive inauguration size, White House communications have soured. There has even been a report on Trump press officials playing a game about how many lies they can tell the media.
By systemically attempting to invalidate the mainstream free press, the Trump administration seeks to be the primary source of truth for Trump supporters, who remain loyal. It’s pretty cancerous for the political culture of the U.S., and poses long term problems for the country.
7. Lots of positions remain unfilled
Trump has yet to appoint dozens of senior level administration officials across a range of departments. The State Department has been particularly understaffed, with it unclear whether the new administration will eventually appoint under secretaries and policy leaders, or leave the positions vacant.
It may well be that this is an intentional move. Trump’s alt-right White House strategist, Steven Bannon, has long desired to ‘deconstruct the administrative state’, a somewhat convoluted term for drastically reducing the size of government. The impact of these vacancies is yet to be understood, with leaks complaining over lack of resource to adequately respond to events that do not make the news, and may be tested in times in crisis.
8. Touting coal, Trump’s dismantling some climate change action
With legislation stalled due to the healthcare fracas, Trump’s pivot towards foreign affairs and executive actions has stripped back measures designed to prevent further climate change.
Trump has signed executive orders — which do not require Congressional approval — to strip away actions taken by the Obama administration. His predecessor’s Clean Power Plan may soon be history, and he is seeking to relieve many of the controls of fossil fuel companies in America. Meanwhile, Trump’s pick for head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt, has publicly stated that reversing man-made climate change is not a priority for his team.
Measures have been implemented across federal agencies to limit the prominence given to climate change, as part of a broader roll back of government messaging on the topic. However, perhaps the most significant indicator for Trump’s energy and environmental policy is yet to come: whether he pulls the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement. Signed by 195 countries, the agreement sets long term goals to limit climate change, reduce global emissions and establish the framework for international cooperation on environmental protection. Scott Pruitt is eager to leave the treaty, but Trump has delayed the decision. An American exit would be a dire blow to the international drive to address climate change.
9. Republicans are beginning to be critical of Trump
In the wake of the healthcare debacle, Republican elected officials are coming under increasing pressure from their constituents. Many town halls across the country have been raucous, fuelled by anti-Trump sentiment and fear of losing health insurance. This has led a small but growing number of Republican lawmakers to openly criticise the President. Oklahoma senator James Lankford said the president should now release his tax returns, and Iowa senator Joni Ernst told her constituents that she was concerned about Trump’s frequenct trips away from D.C. to his Florida resort, Mar-a-Lago.
With a Democratic candidate threatening a huge upset in the Georgia sixth district, a very conservative area north of Atlanta that usually provides 20–30% Republican wins, more Republicans may begin to calculate that criticising the president may actually help their own political fortunes.
10. The Resistance is maturing
Then there’s the opposition. Democrats and the ‘Resistance’ are beginning to improve their focus.
So far numerous high profile demonstrations against the Trump administration have earned international news coverage, from the Woman’s March, to the Tax March, and recently the March for Science. His failed immigration ban led to thousands of Americans protesting at airports. Contrary to Trump’s indignation, there is zero evidence that the thousands of protesters are paid.
The surge in Democratic interest is lifting Democratic upstart Jon Ossoff to real contention in the Georgia sixth district special election to Congress, and has filled town halls with angry Americans demanding answers to Trump’s policies and flip flops. One of the most well connected groups, Indivisible, has matured into a comprehensive guide for how to resist the Trump presidency. This resistance movement shows no sign of abating, and the question this year will be how organisers work with the Democratic Party to coordinate broader victories in midterm congressional elections in 2018.
Final Thoughts
The 100 days assessment is usually framed in terms of legislative successes. FDR passed over a dozen bills that made up the bulk of the New Deal. George W. Bush passed No Child Left Behind and a tax cut. Obama secured his stimulus package and was fast approaching passage of Obamacare. Despite having a majority in both houses of Congress, Trump has passed no major legislation.
However, his supporters can point to a number of executive actions on energy policy and foreign affairs. He has not ‘drained the swamp’; instead he has filled the capital with Wall Street bankers and enabled former campaign managers to open lobbying firms, but that promise was suitably vague that it is doubtful he will truly be held accountable.
Perhaps most interesting has been where the weight of the office has forced Trump to amend his views. That, and the inner dynamics of a Republican Party not yet comfortable with their majority. He has not been the disaster some predicted, but his administration is more accurately characterised by inertia, rumour, and throwing blame than the swift action he promised on the campaign trail.
